NFL Divisional Weekend Wrap-Up

This weekend I went 3-1 on predictions - bringing my playoff record to 5-3 so far.

Here are some general thoughts on this weekend's games:

• Ryan Grant fumbled the ball two times in the first four minutes and one second of the game yesterday, after that he had 27 carries for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns.
  
• The Pack scored 42 of the last 48 points of their game.
  
• After their first two possessions, the Seahawks were forced to 4 punts, 1 fumble, 1 turnover on downs, and 6 points on two field goals.
  
• For a series of plays, when Green Bay had the ball, in the 4th quarter the snow was coming down so hard that FOX was forced to use cameras from the sideline view.
  
• The New England - Jacksonville game was an overhyped game, yes it was close, but no the game was never out of New England's grasp.
  
• Tom Brady threw 26 of 28 (92.9 %) and set a record for highest completion rate in a NFL game.
  
• Jacksonville lost their key battles being held to 80 rushing yards and TOP - 27:40.
  
• Marvin Harrison was not ready to play in this game; the first time he was hit, he fumbled.
  
• Both of the Charger's interceptions were tipped balls and in or near their defensive red zone.
  
• Indianapolis approached this game the wrong way by trying to avoid the run: they were held to 44 rushing yards.
  
• The New York Giants are now 9-1 on the road this season.
  
• Dallas lost this game more than anything and had multiple chances to carve through the Giant's secondary before the 4th quarter, but they could not execute because of a major miss thrown ball by Tony Romo towards wipe open T.O. in the red zone, dropped passes by receivers, and penalties as a result of Andre Gurode screwed up snaps in the Shotgun formation.
  
• The Dallas Cowboys trying to control the time of possession did exactly the opposite of what the Cowboys wanted.  The Cowboys O-line was dead tired by the 4th quarter and that is why the Giants were finally able to pressure Tony Romo.
  

With that I leave the question whether or not this Cowboy's loss is equal in magnitude to the Dallas Maverick's first round loss to the Golden State Warriors in last years NBA playoffs.

Personally, I think the two are very comparable...

 

NFL Divisional Weekend Predictions

We are down to the elite 8 of the National Football League and this weekend is truly crunch-time.  What teams can rise to the occasion and win under enormous amounts of pressure with the entire nation watching them.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Saturday 4:30 Eastern, FOX

The Seahawks come into Lambeau off a 35-14 win over the Washington Redskins last week.  Even with the large point differential I remain unconvinced that Matt Hasselback can stay cool under pressure.  He missed numerous open receivers throughout the game and also threw two nasty interceptions.  On the other side of the ball, the Seattle defense is quick, strong, and very aggressive.  They will come after Brett Favre all game long, but if he can get rid of the ball quickly than the Packer's offense will be fine.  Favre will need to be looking for three and five step drop slant throws as he has been all season.  The running game will also play an important factor in this game.

Key Battle: Running game

MY PREDICTION: Green Bay 27, Seattle 17

Did You Know: Of Brett Favre's 4155 passing yards this season, almost half - 2,061 - have been Yards After Catch (YAC), according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

Saturday 8:00 Eastern, CBS

The Jaguars have to come to this game with a more than confident swagger if they even want to have a chance at this game.  In order to defeat the undefeated Patriots the Jags will need to pound the ball with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew and keep Tom Brady and the rest of the Pat's potent offense off the field.  If this game starts to become a high scoring battle it may get out of hand early.  Unfortunately for Jacksonville they blew a big lead last week and I think that will carry over to Saturday night.

Key Battle: Jag's Time of Possession 

MY PREDICTION: New England 31, Jacksonville 24

Did You Know: That the Patriots are undefeated - if not than go read a newspaper!

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday 4:30 Eastern, FOX

Personally I think is the most intriguing matchup of the four games this weekend.  Eli Manning is coming off his first career playoff win and may have finally found his groove, but don't be so sure.  The Giants got it handed to them twice earlier this season versus division rival Dallas. While the Giants look to be peaking, the Cowboys have lost two of the last three while averaging 10.3 points a game and a miserable 67 yards during this span, including a single rushing yard in Week 17.

Key Battle: 3rd Down Conversions - In Dallas's three losses this season they are a combined 5-35 (14.3 %) on converting third downs, while in their thirteen wins they are a combined 79-164 (48.2 %).

MY PREDICTION: NY Giants 31, Dallas 20

Did You Know: The Giants are 8-1 on the road this season, their one away loss in Week 1 to the Cowboys.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

Saturday 1:00 Eastern, CBS

The Colts have been flying under the radar in the AFC this season simply because of the Patriots.  For this group it may be a good thing.  San Diego was held scoreless last week in the first half against the Tennessee Titans and possibly could be without dominant tight end Antonio Gates.  I saw that the Colts win this game pretty handily.

Key Battle: Philip Rivers vs. himself

MY PREDICTION: Indianapolis 27, San Diego 14

Did You Know: Philip Rivers has thrown 15 INTs this season - 8 in 5 losses, 7 in 11 wins

EA Sports Virtual Playoff Simulation - Cotton Bowl

#6 USC 35 - #11 West Virginia 7

West Virginia started off the game driving down the field and scoring on it’s first
possession capped by a 16-yard pass from Pat White to junior wide receiver Tito
Gonzales.  WVU had no idea that a few minutes later the domination by USC would
begin.  The Trojans scored 35 straight points in route to a 35-7 blowout of the
West Virginia Mountaineers.  John David Booty, USC quarterback and, most valuable
player of the game threw for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns in the win.  The USC defense
did a stellar job following the first and only Mountaineer points forcing Pat 
White’s offense to an 0 – 10 on third down conversions.

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
USC	7	14	7	7	35
WVU	7	0	0	0	7

	USC	WVU
First Downs	11	10
Total Offense	325	163
Rushes-Yards	9-5	25-74
Comp-Att-TD	17-25-4	10-16-1
Passing Yards	320	89
Sacked	2	3
3rd Down Conv	2 – 6 (33%)	0 – 10 (0%)
4th Down Conv	0 – 1 (0%)	0 – 0 (0%)
2-Point Conv	0 – 0 (0%)	0 – 1 (0%)
Redzone – TD – FG	1 – 1 – 0 (100%)	1 – 1 – 0 (100%)
Turnovers	3	0
Fumbles – Lost	2 - 1	0 - 0
Intercepted	2	0
PR Yards	102	0
KR Yards	34	105
Total Yards	481	268
Punts – Average	3 – 29.0	9 – 28.1
Penalties – Yards	0 – 0	1 - 10
T.O.P.	9:21	10:39

EA Sports Virtual Playoff Simulation - Holiday Bowl

#12 Arizona State 38 - #5 Virginia Tech 12

ASU started with a boom and on the opening drive of the game Ryan Torain scored on a
59-yard run.  They continued to build their lead in the 2nd quarter with help from
their offense, defense, and special teams – scoring on an 8-yard pass from Rudy
Carpenter to Michael Jones, 23 yard fumble return by linebacker Mike Nixon, and a
98 kickoff return by Michael Jones.  At halftime the ASU held the edge 28-6 over
Virginia Tech.  The Hookies tried to get things going on the ground but to no avail
averaging only about 2 yards per carry.  Though Tech scored again in the 3rd
quarter the game was closed out when Justin Tryon intercepted a pass and took it
back to the house for 103 yards.

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
ASU	7	21	0	10	38
VT	3	3	6	0	12

	ASU	VT
First Downs	8	7
Total Offense	184	125
Rushes-Yards	17-68	25-52
Comp-Att-TD	13-17-1	6-14-0
Passing Yards	116	73
Sacked	2	3
3rd Down Conv	3 – 7 (42%)	3 – 10 (30%)
4th Down Conv	0 – 0 (0%)	0 – 2 (0%)
2-Point Conv	0 – 0 (0%)	0 – 1 (0%)
Redzone – TD – FG	2 – 1 – 1 (100%)	2 – 0 – 1 (50%)
Turnovers	2	3
Fumbles – Lost	1 - 1	2 - 2
Intercepted	1	1
PR Yards	3	5
KR Yards	182	104
Total Yards	369	234
Punts – Average	2 – 37.5	2 – 42.0
Penalties – Yards	4 – 40	0 - 0
T.O.P.	10:45	9:15

NFL Wild Card Weekend

With the NFL Playoffs about 40 minutes from kickoff, I will leave everyone with my wild card weekend predictions.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday 4:30 Eastern, NBC

The Redskins enter the playoffs on a roll.  Winners of four straight, following four straight losses, this season has been a roller-coaster for this team.  Todd Collins is the most important player in this game.  In his 4 games at quarterback this season he has thrown 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  He needs to stay smart back there, as Seattle will want to bring some pressure to him early.  I don't think that Seattle will be able to establish a healthy run game and this very well may be the difference.  Either way, this one will come down to the wire and will be close most of the game.  If the Washington can get to 24 they win the game.

My Prediction: Washington 24, Seattle 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday 8:00 Eastern, NBC

The rough and tough Jaguars will come into Heinz Field roaring and ready to go.  The one concern I have is that if you consider who much Jacksonville dominated these teams' first meeting, it was still only a seven point game.  Jacksonville needs to get ahead early and if they can do so, they should be able to hold on for the victory.  Maurice Jones-Drew, as well as Fred Taylor, will need to be effective on the ground.

My Prediction: Jacksonville 30, Pittsburgh 20

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday 1:00 Eastern, FOX

As much as I want to see Eli Manning be successful in the National Football League the New York G-men have been too inconsistent the second half of the season against very mediocre teams.  I think the Bucs will wear out the Giants and win this game comfortably.

My Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, NYG 13 

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Sunday 4:30 Eastern, CBS

If the Tennessee Titans are going to have a chance in this game they will need some help from Philip Rivers, which is possible.  He has been inconsistent, at times, this season, but in the end I believe that the Chargers will be able to grind through the Titans with their most important offensive weapon, L.T.

My Prediction: San Diego 31, Tennessee 16

Heroes of the Wild Card

Players who will have great games:

Earnest Graham 

Clinton Portis

David Garrard

BCS or Bust!

 For a lot of NCAA Division - 1A football programs getting into a bowl and having a winning season is a successful season.  While this is the case for lower-tier and inconsistent BCS conference teams and leading mid-major conference teams, still others have to step up their goals.  Texas Tech is a perfect example of this, as Red Raider football has had twelve straight winning seasons and even better yet has won five of the last six bowl games it has appeared in. 

 

It is time to step up the expectation of what these Red Raiders can do.  Here's an early outlook on next season.

OFFENSE

With 10 returning on the offensive side of the ball, including Graham Harrell (leading passer in the nation) and Michael Crabtree, redshirt freshman phenomenon (leading receiver in the nation and winner of the Bietnokiff Award), this group needs to mainly focus on not making mental mistakes.  Before the Gator Bowl, Graham Harrell has shown his vulnerability against ranked opponents throwing 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in a miserable 1-6 record the last two seasons.  Next season he will need to be more patient and mistake-free when throwing the football in these types of games.  Texas Tech wide receivers had numerous drops in the 2008 Gator Bowl, but what was most important is that Harrell did not make many mistakes with his throws, excluding one pass that could have been picked off in the second half.  The entire offensive line returns next season, but Left Tackle Rylan Reed will need to recover fully from his recent broken ankle in the Gator Bowl.

DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS

On defense 8 starters return and numerous others such as Brian Duncan, linebacker, will need to step up and fill in voids.  The most important aspect of a successful season next year will be the ability to stop, or at least contain, the run because not many other Big 12 teams will be able to pass like the Tech offense.  Texas Tech will need to find a replacement kicker for senior Alex Trlica, who went his entire career without missing an extra point.  This likely may be found in junior kicker Cory Fowler.

RECRUITING

As any Texas Tech fan will tell you, it's not too easy to recruit good football players to come to Lubbock when they can go down to College Station or Austin.  Even so, the number two recruit in the nation, wide receiver Julio Jones (1,181 yards and 16 TD as senior), is still considering Tech as well as other top receivers.  Overall so far Texas Tech has 11 committed players from the class of 2008, including 7 defensive players - 3 of which are junior college transfers that figure to make an immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball.  Harrison Jeffers, a running back from Oklahoma ranked 11th nationally, also figures to get a chance to make a name for himself in the coming years as a Red Raider.

2008 is definitely the year that Texas Tech football needs to make a statement in the Big 12 conference, or else it might be time for a change.  It will be a long offseason for the Red Raiders, but come this fall it is BCS or bust!

What Could Have Been

As I sit here watching this pitiful excuse for "The Grandaddy of Them All", The Rose Bowl, this game just gives us fans one more reason why the BCS is becoming completely inadequate for NCAA Division - IA Football.  Today we are presented with a thirty-two point USC blowout of Illinois, 49-17, the biggest blowout of the Rose Bowl since 1984, which ironically was the last time Illinois was in the Rose Bowl, suffering another embarrassing defeat from UCLA, 45-9.  Only hours earlier today, the number six BCS ranked Missouri, whooped Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl 38-7.  The amazing number of upsets of ranked opponents this season just proves that a playoff system is coming closer and closer to reality.

So here it is: 12 team playoff consisting of the 6 BCS Conference Champions and the next 6 highest AP Poll ranked teams; the top 4 teams will receive a bye week.  Make the the top 11 bowls part of this tournament and the rest of the bowls can exist for lower ranked teams.  Re-seeding will occur after each week's results like in the NFL Playoffs.  I will simulate these games in NCAA Football 2008 and post the results in the coming weeks.

#1 Ohio State (Big-10 Bid) -BYE

#2 LSU (SEC Bid) - BYE

#3 Oklahoma (Big-12 Bid) -BYE

#4 Georgia (At-Large 1) -BYE

#5 Virginia Tech (ACC Bid)

#6 USC (Pac-10 Bid)

#7 Missouri (At-Large 2)

#8 Kansas (At-Large 3)

#9 Florida (At-Large 4)

#10 Hawaii (At-Large 5)

#11 West Virginia (Big East Bid)

#12 Arizona State (At-Large 6)

Round 1:

#5 Virginia Tech vs. #12 Arizona State - Holiday Bowl -  Saturday, December 15, 2007

#6 USC vs. #11 West Virginia - Cotton Bowl - Saturday, December 15, 2007

#7 Missouri vs. #10 Hawaii - Outback Bowl - Saturday, December 15, 2007

#8 Kansas vs. #9 Florida - Chick-Fil-A Bowl -Saturday, December 15, 2007

And by the way a prediction for tonight's Sugar Bowl: another "prestigious" bowl blowout Georgia 35 - Hawaii 14